Betfair Trading – Predicting where prices will move – Peter Webb: Bet Angel

Please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future. So if you look at any market in vet, angel you’ll see these numbers at the top, and this is the book over round, and the book over around will always be hundreds over a hundred percent on the back side. In fact, what I should do is just this is what you would normally see on the back fair screen. It will always be a hundred percent on the back side and always under a hundred percent on the lay side. This number up here represents the chance of any one of these selections going on to win the race. So, of course you know, we’ve got a six run a race here.

There are six horses, one of those horses is going to win the race. So, there’s certainty that one of those will win and therefore excluding dead, heats of course, and therefore the book percentage is at 100 %, you’ll find the same in football in tennis and so on. All of the odds add up to 100 % or nearly 100 %. If the market was perfect, then these figures up here would show 100 %, but you notice that there’s point eight over on this side and point eight under on this side, why is it different?

Well, that’s the difference in spread between the back and lay prices. So you can see to 46 to 48, 3.3. 3.4.

3.7. 3.0. The difference in spread between those two is creating a difference in spread at the top of the market, and the spread is the difference between one hundred and one point: six minus ninety eight point: seven and that’s what we call spread. The difference between those two two values, so the spreads, can be applicable as a book percentage or it can be applicable on on individual runner. So you can see.

The spread here is to two percent between 252 and 250 are now see there. Can you see the book has slipped temporarily under a hundred percent? When that happens, people will go into the market and correct that situation, so the book always hunts, 100 percent or as close to 100 percent as possible to understand how this works. If you go to the dutching or the bookmaking area on betangel, you can actually get an understanding of exactly how a book is constructed. So if we go to the dutching area and we click on back – you can see that that’s basically saying now – you’ve selected odds of 252, so sing out loud, we’ve selected the back odds at 252, and that represents 39.7 % of the book. Now, if you click another one, the front two in this market – a 66 % of the book.

So what is happening here is the market is saying that it thinks that the from two runners here have a 66 % chance of going on to win the race, and this is where dutching can be particularly beneficial, because, if you’re betting into a book, that’s close To 100 % – and you use more than one selection, then you’ve got a pretty good chance of picking a winner and you’re not going to lose much money in the spread. So let’s select the third one. You can see the front three in this market. Have a ninety seven point, one percent chance of winning this race.

One of these front three is going to win. Basically is what the market is saying and if we continue this process all the way down, then you can see eventually adds up to 100 %. Now a quick way of doing that.

You see, if you just click on back, you can see boom there you go, it adds up to 100 %. But of course you know if, if we select the lay price, then we’ll get slightly different figures, so in fact you could select all of the labor Isis and you can see that it actually adds up to just under 100 percent. So in theory, if you could back the entire book at the current lay price, you would make a little bit of money. You’D make a one percent margin but of course, you’d have to wait for those orders to fill and in the process of them filling some of them they move and so on and so forth. So that becomes a bit of an issue, but we do have the options to back at the compact price back at the current low price or back at an manually nominated price.

So let’s have a look at what happens when you’re back at a nominated price. First of all, I’m going to reset them to that level and then we’ll have a look and the menu price. This will allow you to understand how a market is formed, because if we look at the market and the price of the favorite starts to drift, can you see what happens to the book percentage? The book percentage starts to slip under 100 percent. So if this drifts out to odds of 276, this book percentage here is not a state that can exist in the market arbitrage s will kick in.

Cross-Matching will kick in when we’re a bit closer to the off and correct that situation. So if the price on something drifts, then the price and something else must be coming in so because the front three in this market take up one-third. Oh sorry, nearly they did all of the entire market. I was looking at the front three and thinking 3/10. One. Third, anyway, because these three take up the majority of the market, if the price and the favorit drifts and the price and something else must come in so if we start adjusting the price here, you can see if the favorite goes out to 276, then the price Of brother high must come in to around 3:15, or maybe it just comes in to around three point six, and in fact it’s something else that comes in a bit to help push that book percentage up.

So, in the way in which you see this, this is showing you the way that, if the odds go out in one direction somewhere, then the odds must change somewhere else, and this is the correlation that you see within the market. This is why the market meanders up and down at a variety of different prices within the market. So when you see this, that’s what’s going on. If the book, if the price and something on these front three one of these front three starts to move in one direction, another one will have to correct in the other direction so to be able to account for that, and the small of the book is we’re Only in what buy there, I’m saying this small of the book, the number of runners within the book, so this is only a six run erase the stronger that correlation is if you’ve got a twenty or thirty run a race.

There’S a weak correlation there, but the smaller the field, the more likely that you will see prices move in opposite directions, but by using the dutching and bookmaking tab you can actually identify and work out. What’S that possible correlation could be and what prices needs to be hit at certain points in order for the price to react somewhere else. So let’s say that, maybe in fact what happens is that the price on the favorite shortens? Maybe the price on the favorite shortens to 225. You can see the books at 109 percent, which is unsustainable.

We know it hunts one hundred percent, so that would mean the price on these would have to drift. So let’s push these prices out a bit more. You can see if the price on the favorite comes in two to twenty four. You can see the price, and these other twos is going to have to move a fair bit in order to compensate for that.

So playing around with this on different markets at different prices will give you a really good feel for how prices interact. When you look at that in entire markets, as opposed to just one individual runner, so probably the simplest way to understand this is to look at a football match, because there are only three outcomes in a football match. The book percentage is going to be quite tight and we can actually examine what would happen at the start of the match. You would make sense to be able to comprehend what’s likely to happen in this match, because arsenal are playing away and if they don’t score, then the odds on Arsenal will drift and the price and the draw will come in. But, of course, the price on the draw coming in is what’s making Arsenal drift?

It’S not necessarily the Arsenal they’re drifting, it’s just that the draw is getting more likely and the chance of national winners getting less likely. Now. I know from my experience in the markets that the price on this team I was going to pronounce it I’m not going to attempt to do that, will probably stay about. The same will come in if there’s no goal, so it’s the drift on Arsenal.

It’S taking place and the draw coming in, but you can now correlate exactly what the impact on one would have on the other. So let’s say when were five minutes into the match and the draw I sorry, the price on Arsenal has drifted to what is the price and the draw going to be? Let’S have a look, it’s going to be around 365 and if we get a little bit later into the match and Arsenal the 214. What’S the price on the draw going to be, it will be around 325 and we only know that because we know that if there’s no goal, then the price on the home team isn’t gon na.

If much, but, of course, the draw and the price on Arsenal is going to have to move in the other direction so around halftime, maybe the draw will come in to about 2.6, so I’ve just manually over typed that and we can just drift the price on Arsenal out to understand what price Arsenal would likely be if there was no goal by halftime, they would be out to about 256, and perhaps the price on the home team has come in slightly because they have had a strong attacking phase. Then what you would find is that any movement on then coming in would send the price on Arsenal out. So if they’re right, they have a lot of shots on target and so on and so forth, then the price and Aston will move just that little bit.

More so anyhow, hopefully, that’s given you an overview as to how prices correlate when you’re looking at them, not in isolation, but it as a percentage of the entire book.